News, introspective, insight & opinion from around the Major & Minor Leagues

News, introspective, insight & opinion from around the Major & Minor Leagues

Monday, August 10, 2009

The Butler did it (well, he's doing it now)

Billy Butler is now hitting .302/.358/.485 for a 127 OPS+. Billy's on pace for 20 homers and 50 doubles. Those are pretty decent numbers, especially for a guy who -- it's easy to forget this -- just turned 23 in April.

These aren't unprecedented numbers, of course, but you have to be encouraged by the company he's keeping.

This year, there are four others Billy's age or younger matching his OPS+. They are Evan Longoria, Pablo Sandoval, Adam Jones and Justin Upton.

Here is the list of guys to do it in the last five years: B.J. Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, and Jhonny Peralta.

Here is the list of 23-year-olds to hit 20 homers with 48 doubles in baseball history: Ramirez, Cabrera, Sizemore, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Hank Greenberg.

Put those lists together and you're looking at one guy who's in the Hall of Fame, several more who are going there, a few with a shot, and then some scrubs who are merely really good players.

Billy still scuffles at time in the field, and, let's be honest here, outside of hitting, really doesn't do any baseball-related skill even average. But it's a hell of a skill to have, one the Royals are absolutely desperate for, one that will earn Billy -- at least -- tens of millions of dollars, and here's where we get to the point.

When should the Royals start thinking about locking him up long-term?
When does the risk of him regressing become too small in the face of what will likely be a rising cost?

Billy will most likely have one more year before he hits arbitration, which would make him a free agent after the 2013 season. There's plenty of time there, and the Royals probably won't feel rushed to get something worked out for at least a few years.

But if there is an early judgment to be made, Billy's putting together the type of career from a homegrown prospect that the Royals have publicly said is important for them to sign long-term.

Throw a few dollars Billy’s way at next year’s draft. You won’t be disappointed. - Robert Fairchild
Robert Fairchild is a professional sports gaming professional. He legally wages on professional and collegiate sporting events for a living. Robert is NOT suggesting that you quit your day job and try to wager on sports for a living. He is contributing his thoughts and experience to assist you in a recreational activity that you as an informed adult may choose to take part in. Robert will NOT give specific wagering advice on any particular proposition in this forum.

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