Break out your abacus! - FIP

WARNING! - If you feel real intelligent today and think you can comprehend this post, go for it. If you are not having one of your better days, I suggest you pass on this one; it will only make your brain hurt.

I received the strangest correspondence from an apparent rather intelligent fellow, George Zale of Qeenstown, New Zealand this morning. First of all, the fact that we are writing here and someone in Qeenstown, New Zealand is reading us is mind blowing to me. The fact that someone in Qeenstown, New Zealand apparently seemed to know more about analyzing MLB pitchers than I did was a bit depressing.

Anyway, George sent me an article on FIP. For any of your morons who don’t know what FIP is (before this morning I was a self proclaimed moron and had no idea what FIP was either and to tell you the truth, I’m still not sure I know what FIP is…), apparently FIP has become a widely popular method of choosing Fantasy pitchers. FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching, attempts to help one understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. Yeah I know, I was thinking the same thing…..

Here’s how you figure this thing out……… now stay with me…..

Fielding Independent Pitching (definition) - a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible.

The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. Yeah I know, I was thinking the same thing…..

Anyway, George over in New Zealand seems to think that this is all the rage and that using it will undoubtedly propel you to a title.

Here is what I can tell you about FIP, there is a problem. (….Still with me?) FIP is a statistic that attempts to estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be based on his peripheral statistics—or rather, the peripheral statistics originally suggested by Voros McCracken when he introduced DIPS Theory. (Brain hurt yet?) This includes strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. While we know that strikeouts and walks are extremely important, eight years after Voros's work was originally published, we can definitively say that home runs aren't entirely under a pitcher's control.

Ok, now here we go……..Here's how things work: a pitcher can influence the rate of fly balls he gives up. By this logic, the more fly balls allowed, the more total balls will clear the fences for home runs (all else being equal).

But think about it…… while a starting pitcher can control the rate of fly balls allowed, he cannot do a very good job of controlling the rate at which those fly balls become home runs (with very few exceptions).

To put it more simply, starting pitchers just don't have any underlying ability to prevent home runs—the best they can do is prevent fly balls. If those fly balls are clearing the fence at too high a rate (or too low), we say that the pitcher has been unlucky (or lucky). And therein lies the problem with FIP.

George, all I can tell you is that while NASA here in the US (you guys must have something like that over there don’t you) may need your algebraic analytical skills, Fantasy baseball does not. I think WHIP is about as technically sophisticated as we need to get when analyzing a pitcher. If he doesn’t give up many hits and walks per innings pitched, he’s good – if he does, he’s not good.

If you made it this far and your brain doesn’t hurt, you are clearly a superior human being. Congratulations, let us know and I’ll try to get management to send you a hat or something. For those of you in pain, my apologies, but I warned you in the beginning. – Robert Fairchild

Robert Fairchild is a professional sports gaming professional. He legally wages on professional and collegiate sporting events for a living. Robert is NOT suggesting that you quit your day job and try to wager on sports for a living. He is contributing his thoughts and experience to assist you in a recreational activity that you as an informed adult may choose to take part in. Robert will NOT give specific wagering advice on any particular proposition in this forum.