DISCLAIMER - If you have absolutely nothing going on in your life and want to wade through this, you might learn something. If you have anyone that loves you, even a dog or a goldfish, I suggest that you do not let them see you reading this post. They may think differently about you if they do.This past Tuesday, in response to the New Zealand rocket scientist, we ran “Break out your abacus- FIP.” My thoughts when I posted that were that since George Zale of Qeenstown, New Zealand was interested in it, that some more of you rather intelligent fellows might be as well. So we rolled up our sleeves and went into it.
Never in my wildest dreams did I think that posting that would actually cause more problems and questions than it solved! For those of you whose brains still hurt from last time, feel free to take a pass on this one. However, for all you nerds out there, here we go. There are three FIP related calculations that can be made and they are the following.
FIP
FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. It's a simple estimate of how well a pitcher has pitched, given his walk, strikeout and home run rates. It follows the formula (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, with the addition of a constant, generally 3.2. For the purposes of this test, the constant has been figured separately for each season.
xFIP
xFIP is FIP with the home runs replaced by their fly balls allowed times the average number of home runs per fly ball (in the sample I used for the test, .13). Again, constants were computed separately for each season.
tRA
tRA is a stat similar to FIP, with two key changes: it accounts for the type of batted ball allowed, and it estimates a pitcher's outs as well as his runs allowed from the data at hand. What is in use is not tRA as originally calculated but my reimplementation of tRA. Values were computed for each season. tRA was then scaled to make it fit on the scale of ERA, instead of runs per game.
This is pretty boring stuff if you ask me and I would prefer to not write on it again, so I am going to attempt to satisfy / prevent questions that I think are coming on all kinds of things.
There are plenty of sites on the internet that provide glossaries of terms used in sophisticated rotisserie baseball analysis. While we do not have any intention on posting a searchable glossary (I’m certain that one of our sponsor sites has one), here is one that you can use that was given to me by a serious player a while ago. It’s not the most comprehensive one, but it will provide you with enough acronyms and statistical formulas to make hurt yourself if that’s what you are into.
I apologize for the length as I am just going to cut and paste what I have. I completely understand that the intent of a blog is to be short and consice however I couldn't figure out any other way to do this. I think it’s better than editing it, this way it should be basic enough for those of you that just want to learn some rotisserie lingo so you can feel comfortable carrying a conversation, yet thorough enough to make you look like a complete pompous know-it-all ass if that’s your thing and you want to actually know how to calculate some of these bad boys. - Robert Fairchild
Robert Fairchild is a professional sports gaming professional. He legally wages on professional and collegiate sporting events for a living. Robert is NOT suggesting that you quit your day job and try to wager on sports for a living. He is contributing his thoughts and experience to assist you in a recreational activity that you as an informed adult may choose to take part in. Robert will NOT give specific wagering advice on any particular proposition in this forum.ROTISSERIE GLOSSAY FOR NERDS (for anal Rotisserie glossaries with even more terms, formulas and acronyms, go to another website)
A
Assists. The number of times a fielder makes a throw that results in an out.
AB
At Bats
AB/RSP
At Bats with Runners in Scoring Position (second and/or third base).
BA
Batting Average, Hits divided by At Bats.
BA/RSP
Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position (second and/or third base).
BABIP
Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.
BB
Bases on Balls, otherwise known as walks.
BB/G
Walks Allowed per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of walks allowed divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).
BFP
Batters Faced by Pitcher. The pitching equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters.
BIZ
Balls in Zone, a fielding stat that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder's zone while he was in the field.
BR, or Base Runs
A run contribution formula which quantifies the number of runs contributed by a batter. The fundamental formula for Base Runs is (base runners times scoring rate) plus home runs. It’s widely viewed that Base Runs is the best run contribution formula.
Clutch
"Clutch" is the name given to the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it.
CS
Caught Stealing
DER
Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls.
DP
Double Plays
DPS
Double Plays Started, in which the fielder typically gets only an assist.
DPT
Double Plays Turned, in which the fielder records both an assist and an out.
ERA
Earned Run Average. Number of earned runs allowed divided by innings pitched multiplied by nine.
ERA+
ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.
FE
Fielding Errors, as opposed to Throwing Errors (TE)
FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
FPct
Fielding Percentage, or the number of fielding chances handled without an error. The formula is (A+PO)/(A+PO+E).
G
Games played.
GB%
The percent of all batted balls (not just outs) that are groundballs.
G/F
G/F stands for Groundball to Flyball Ratio. It is the number of groundballs divided by the number of flyballs (but not line drives) hit by the batter or allowed by the pitcher. It includes all batted balls, not just outs.
GIDP (or GDP)
The number of times a batter Grounded Into Double Plays.
GPA
Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star. A simple formula for converting GPA to runs is PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77).
GS
Games Started, a pitching stat.
HRA
Home Runs Allowed, also a pitching stat.
HR/Fly or HR/F
Home Runs as a percent of outfield flyballs. The home run totals are adjusted by the home ballpark's historic home run rates. Research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs. For pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of "luck," but for hitters this stat is more indicative of a true skill (hitting the ball hard!).
HR/G
Home Runs Allowed per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of home runs allowed divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).
IBB
Intentional Base on Balls.
IF/Fly or IF/F
The percent of flyballs that are infield flies. For some pitchers, inducing infield flies may be a repeatable skill.
ISO
Isolated Power, which measures the “true power” of a batter. The formula is SLG-BA.
K
Strikeouts
K/G
Strikeouts per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of strikeouts divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).
L
Losses
LD%
Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.
Leverage Index
A measure of how critical a specific batting situation is. One (1) is average, anything above one is more critical and anything less than 1 is less critical.
LOB and LOB%
LOB stands for Left On Base. It is the number of runners that are left on base at the end of an inning. LOB% is slightly different; it is the percentage of baserunners allowed that didn't score a run. LOB% is used to track pitcher's luck or effectiveness (depending on your point of view). The exact formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)).
Marcels
The Marcels are a simple way of calculating a player forecast. Named after the monkey from Friends (so simple a monkey could do them), they simply consist of averaging a player's previous experience (with greatest weight on the most recent years) and regressing to the major league average depending on the number of years the player has been in the majors. This is done for each component (home runs, doubles, walks, etc.) A simple aging factor is applied, but no park factor.
OBP
On Base Percentage, the proportion of plate appearances in which a batter reached base successfully, including hits, walks and hit by pitches. OBP is also a powerful performance metric when interpreted as the percentage of times the batter didn't make an out.
OOZ
Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.
Op
Save Opportunities
OPS
On Base plus Slugging Percentage, a crude but quick measure of a batter’s true contribution to his team’s offense. See GPA for a better approach.
OPS+
OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.
P
P measures the criticality of a reliever's appearance. It is computed by estimating the impact a successful relief appearance would have on a team's WPA.
P/GS
Pitches per Game Started (only shown for pitchers who have started in 100% of their appearances).
P/PA
Pitches per Plate Appearance.
PA
Plate Appearances, or AB+BB+HBP+SF+SH.
PO
Putouts, the number of times a fielder recorded an out in the field. First basemen and outfielders get lots of these. From a pitching perspective, PO stands for pick offs -- the number of times a pitcher picks a baserunner off a base.
POS
Position played in the field.
PR (Pitching Runs)
A measure of the number of runs a pitcher saved compared to average. The formula is league-average RA/IP minus park-adjusted RA/IP, times total innings pitched. This is the same formula as RSAA (see below).
PRC (Pitching Runs Created)
The notion behind Pitching Runs Created is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored, and PRC puts runs saved on the same scale as runs scored. You can directly compare PRC to a batter's Runs Created to gauge each player's relative value to his team.
PrOPS
PrOPS stands for "Predicted OPS." It's a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.
Pythagorean Record
A formula for converting a team’s Run Differential into a projected Won/Loss record. The formula is RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2). Teams’ actual won/loss records tend to mirror their Pythagorean records, and variances can usually be attributed to luck.
You can improve the accuracy of the Pythagorean formula by using a different exponent (the 2 in the formula). In particular, a sabermetrician named US Patriot discovered that the best exponent can be calculated this way: (RS/G+RA/G)^.287, where RS/G is Runs Scored per game and RA/G is Runs Allowed per game. This is called the PythagoPat formula.
R
Runs Scored and/or Allowed.
R/G
Runs Scored Per Game. Literally, R divided by games played.
RA
Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings. Just like ERA, but with unearned runs, too.
RBI
Runs Batted In
RC
Runs Created. A very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. The most comprehensive version is the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.
RCAA
Runs Created Above Average. Calculates each player’s Runs Created, and then compares it to the league average, given that player’s number of plate appearances.
RF
Range Factor, a measure of the total chances fielded in a player’s playing time. The formula we use is 9*(PO+A)/Innings in Field.
RS
Runs Scored
RSAA
Runs Saved Above Average. A measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness and contribution. The formula is RA/IP minus league-average RA/IP, times total innings pitched.
Run Differential
Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed.
RZR (or ZR)
Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. To get a full picture of a player's range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ).
SB
Stolen Bases
SB%
The percent of time a runner stole a base successfully. The formula is SB/SBA.
SBA
Stolen Bases Attempted.
SBA/G
Stolen Base Attempts per 9 innings played.
ShO
Shutouts
SLG and SLGA
Slugging Percentage. Total Bases divided by At Bats. SLGA stands for Slugging Percentage Against. It represents SLG from the pitcher's perspective.
SO
Strikeouts
Sv
Saves
Sv%
Saves divided by Save Opportunities
TB
Total Bases, calculated as 1B+2B*2+3B*3+HR*4.
TBA
Total Bases Allowed. A pitching stat.
TE
Throwing Errors, as opposed to Fielding Errors (FE).
UER
Unearned Runs
UERA
Unearned Run Average, or the number of unearned runs allowed for each nine innings pitched.
W
Wins
WHIP
Walks and Hits Per Inning Pitched, a variant of OBP for pitchers. This is a popular stat in rotisserie baseball circles.
WPA
Win Probability Added. A system in which each player is given credit toward helping his team win, based on play-by-play data and the impact each specific play has on the team's probability of winning.
WP+PB/G
Wild Pitches and Passed Balls per Nine Innings played. A fielding stat for catchers.
xFIP
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.
Zone
The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.
Ok now class, memorize the subject material and we'll havd a quiz next week........
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