Buy Low, Sell High

One of the finest arts of all fantasy sports, and one of the key ingredients to fantasy victory is the concept of buying low and selling high. It is the classic guessing game of fantasy sports, and those who do it well tend to see impressive results in the fantasy world.

How can one tell though?

How can we know that someone who is batting .340 in May will go on to bat .260 in June? Who can guess when a player homers twice in May, that the same player will homer 14 times in June? And who has the crystal ball that shows which pitcher will win 5 games one month, yet only win one game the following? The answer is…NOBODY!!! You can raise your chances of being good at this classic guessing game by looking at certain statistics and trends, but a good hunch or gut-feeling can go a long way.

At one third of the way through the 2009 season, let’s examine a few possible sell high candidates.

1. Johnny Damon, Yankees - Damon has been stellar so far in 2009, and fantasy owners could not have asked for more. He has been batting over .300 for the majority of the season, and his other numbers are certainly nothing to scoff at. Damon has only hit 20 homers twice in his career, and already has 12 so far this season. He is also on pace to set career highs in RBI and runs scored. This all looks great on paper, but the question fantasy owners must ask themselves is…will it last? Even with the jet stream at the new Yankee Stadium, I still don’t think Damon can keep it up.

2. Russell Branyan, Mariners - Branyan has been playing professional baseball for 15 seasons now, and hasn’t really played well in any of them, except this one. He is 33 years old, has a career .237 batting average, and has never had more than 56 RBI in a season. In addition, he has only played more than 100 games in a season twice. Branyan is owned in almost 80% of fantasy leagues, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that he will maintain his current level of performance. He has been a big strikeout guy most of his career, has been so far this year, and I expect many of his other old attributes to begin reappearing soon as well.

3. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs - Fuku is another player who has been putting up impressive numbers this year, and 70% of fantasy owners are confident enough to have him on their roster. I just want to remind those 70% of a small piece of history that they may have forgotten, in the interest of acknowledging that history repeats itself. In the 2008 season, Fukudome’s average dropped somewhere around 50 points after the all star break, and at some point, he seemed to just run out of gas. His strikeouts also began to rise right along with that drop in average. Now I can’t say for sure if this trend will repeat this year, but it is something to keep in mind while his numbers are still up.

Let’s check out a few possible buy low candidates.

1. Lance Berkman, Astros - Lance has not hit less than .278 in the last 10 years, and has only batted below .287 once. He is a career .300 hitter, who I believe will approach that level again this season. After suffering an extremely slow start to the 2009 season with a batting average of .162 in April, he has gone on to hit .286 in May, and has begun the month of June with an average of .364. Berkman’s average should continue to rise, while his other numbers are already pretty solid.

2. B.J. Upton, Rays - In his first two big league seasons, Upton batted .300 and .273 respectively. He is only 24-years-old, yet has shown extreme skill early in his career. His performance in the postseason has proven him a player that can handle himself under pressure, and there seems to be no lack of confidence in him by the Rays organization. In his last ten games, Upton is batting .462 with six runs scored, six RBI, and a homerun. Upton’s numbers will definitely pick up as the season continues, and if someone is looking to give him up at a fair price, he is worth a look.

3. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks - Like Upton, Drew is early in his career, but he has shown more than once that he clearly has above average talent. This, coupled with the fact that he is batting .375 so far in June, leads me to believe that he may have turned the corner. In 2008, Drew batted .291 to go along with 21 home runs, and as the summer continues, I expect him to approach these same types of numbers again. If you are in need of a shortstop, and you can get Drew for a cheap price, keep him in mind. - Gregory Shapiro

Greg is an orthopedic surgeon that has a number of professional athletes including MLB players as patients. He’s an avid MLB fan and rotisserie player with some unique insight into the world of professional athletes.